Dicks, Picks and Tricks
More picks than dicks with Super Rugby Pacific heading into the home stretch
It’s time to look at the run home with the Super Rugby Pacific (SRP) season having a breakout 2025 from previous iterations of the competition.
Our All Blacks might miss the physicality and the enjoyment of different scenery with South Africa, and to a lesser extent, Japan and Argentina, which have been removed from the competition.
Still, we, as viewers, don’t. I used to, hand on heart, watch the annual Waratahs vs. Reds game because it featured many Wallabies and had a low-key State of Origin vibe to it. The Brumbies obviously were stacked at times with internationals, but the two primary states always had the goods to deliver.
Nowadays, the anticipation is back, kind of, and even though basketball commentary games each weekend and watching the rest of the Sal’s NBL dominate (My basketball podcast ‘From The Carpark’ here or below) my viewing from mid-March to mid-July, I still find time for the meaningful games of SRP and the Warriors, among other sports. Apologies to my family.
So, in saying that, it’s time to take a reasoned and analytical look at who can make the playoffs in SRP and who will miss out…by asking A.I.
Yeah.
It’s come to that.
I asked Google’s Gemini to calculate a simple weighting for historical Super Rugby results and determine the home team's advantage as a numerical value.
Google’s Gemini offered the very American way of looking at percentages, with three decimal places, and spat out 0.150 for a home team. What it doesn’t take into account is form and injuries, but hey, the Chiefs did pretty well without DMAc at the Mount last round, and the Canes did what no one else has managed to do this season from New Zealand, and that’s win in Aussie and Canberra, no less.
It’s maybe a thing, perhaps it isn’t, but hopefully, it will work for the following.
Here’s the current standings on 2nd May for your reference:
As you can see, teams ranked 10th to 5th are a bonus point win from each other, so I’ve used science and math to predict the future.
The Formula is straightforward, and a hypothetical example is as follows:
Hypothetical Remaining Schedule for Chiefs:
vs Crusaders (Home)
@ Blues (Away)
vs Brumbies (Home)
@ Highlanders (Away)
Calculating Adjusted Opponent Winning Percentage for Chiefs' Hypothetical Remaining Schedule:
Crusaders (Home): Opponent Win% = 0.800. Adjusted for Home = 0.800−0.15=0.650.
Blues (Away): Opponent Win% = 0.300. Adjusted for Away = 0.300+0.15=0.450.
Brumbies (Home): Opponent Win% = 0.600. Adjusted for Home = 0.600−0.15=0.450.
Highlanders (Away): Opponent Win% = 0.300. Adjusted for Away = 0.300+0.15=0.450.
Chiefs' Hypothetical Remaining Strength of Schedule:
Average Adjusted Opponent Win% = (0.650+0.450+0.450+0.450)/4=2.000/4=0.500.
So here’s the remaining four games for each New Zealand SRP team that aren’t named ‘Chiefs’ or ‘Crusaders’ (because they’re fantastic and will probably meet in the final) and who has the toughest stretch run home.
We start with the bottom-ranked Highlanders and for each opponent, their current win percentage, regardless of whether they’ve won at home, on the road, or outside their own country.
10th Highlanders
Moana (8th) .400
at Hurricanes (5th) .515 (added .150 for all away games)
at Crusaders (1st equal) .950
Chiefs (1st equal) .800The
The strength of the remaining schedule (SORS) is a problematic .666.
Lol. Bye, Felicia. Nothing personal, but that is a brutal stretch run home, and I wish the Highlanders nothing but luck.
9th Blues run home
Force (6th) .400
at Drua (11th) .315
at Moana (8th) .515
Waraths (7th) .555
The SORS is .446
If the reigning champs are anything like Vern Cotter wants them to be, then this schedule should be easy. However, nothing has come easily for them in 2025. Drua in Fiji is tough, but they should take care of the remaining games.
SHOULD.
I wanted Moana Pasifika's game at Eden Park a couple of weeks ago to be a barn burner, a celebration of Auckland’s heritage and fandom. Still, the Blues put on a defensive and disruptive performance that was impressive. Hopefully, the return fixture will be a better game for us.
8th Moana Pasifika run home
at Highlanders (10th) .450Blues (9th) .300
at Chiefs .915
at Hurricanes .550
The SORS is .554
Just one home game remaining for Ardie’s Army, and all are the teams fighting for a playoff position, jostling for home-field advantage. Maybe a bridge too far.
5th Hurricanes run home
Chiefs (1st equal) .800
Highlanders (10th) .300
at Reds (4th) .810
Moana Pasifika (8th) .400
The SORS is .554
It’s not great, but it’s not awful, and it really does come down to how well they play tomorrow night against the Chiefs in Wellington. No DMac, No ALB, No worries, right?
The Highlanders will be tough, but it’s at home, and that away trip to Queensland (The Reds have lost only once at home - to the Brumbies, conceding 39 points) is going to be the sticky one if the Chiefs win tomorrow night. Canberra was a good win because the signs were there against the Force the week before; it was just the finishing that was missing. It wasn’t against the Brumbies with two tries to each winger, and Ruben Love was more comfortable at 10, Billy Proctor’s class and Roigard’s try assists (10 this year) make life easy on attack.
I see the Moana Pasifika game going differently than it did when the Hurricanes lost in early March, 40-31.
Good luck to your team, and apologies if you’re a Force or Waratahs fan. I couldn’t be bothered running the exact numbers, and I think at least one of your teams is out of contention.
It was a big week in the Sal’s NBL - the men’s national basketball league, for unfortunate reasons, so if you like your basketball and a player payment scandal, have a listen to the podcast I recorded today with Casey Frank and Timprovise.
Nice work. I’m heading straight to the TAB!
Canes looking a shoe-in now after beating the Chiefs last night.